Timing

April 16, 2024

The most important, yet the most difficult element of preparing for what I see as an inevitable day of reckoning. I have some ideas, but also wish to begin a dialogue on this challenge.

I have to begin by acknowledging that I have been worried about financial conditions in our country for a long time (decades). The consensus view is that timing the market is difficult (or impossible) and that since the market usually goes up, your best bet is to just stay invested. I believe this is a partial truth that is going to trap most people - and will leave their future and our county’s future in shambles.

As I see it, extreme high prices and extreme high debt have created a toxic brew that won’t last much longer. Ignoring this danger with the platitude that “stocks will always go up” is a clear recipe for disaster. While I don’t claim to have predicted each twist and turn, or to have anticipated the extremes to which markets have gone (example - 5000 year lows on interest rates) it is clear to me that the current risk/reward ratio now demands an “all hands on deck” examination of current market conditions. My general theme is: “you don’t have to go down with the ship”. I believe that most will, but each $ that is not destroyed in the upcoming collapse will be a dollar that is available to help rebuild society. Help yourself, and that will help the world!!